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Fiscal risks and sustainability
The UK public finances have been buffeted by a rapid succession of nasty shocks. As the Office for Budget Responsibility noted in July 2022, in the aftermath of the pandemic and in the midst of the energy crisis, ‘it is hard to escape the conclusion that the world is becoming a riskier place’. Since then, global interest rates have soared, pushing the UK government’s debt interest bill to its highest level since the 1980s. On top of that, challenges which were once thought of as ‘long-term’ are increasingly posing fiscal risks in the here and now.
This online event, jointly organised by the Office for Budget Responsibility and Institute for Fiscal Studies, will focus on two particular fiscal risks facing the UK:
Following the publication of the latest Fiscal Risks and Sustainability repo...
published: 29 Sep 2023
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Asian Perspectives on Sovereign Debt and Managing Fiscal Risks
Asian Perspectives on Sovereign Debt and Managing Fiscal Risks
https://www.adb.org/publications/asian-perspectives-on-sovereign-debt-and-managing-fiscal-risks
This ADBI press book highlights the role of fiscal policy as an effective tool in crisis times while also drawing insights on the implications for prudent public debt management and fiscal resilience. With a focus on Asian economies, the book provides guidance to policy makers on reducing debt vulnerabilities and maximizing the capacity of fiscal policy to respond to shocks. The discussions highlight the importance of well-coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, as well as enhancing efforts on tax revenue generation and mobilizing domestic financial resources. The book also describes fiscal framework design that incorporates risk ...
published: 02 Nov 2023
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CD Talk: Building Capacity on Managing Fiscal Risks - A New Fiscal Risk Toolkit
We cannot predict what events with adverse impacts on public finances may develop next year, or the year after. But policymakers can structure public finances with resilience in mind.
published: 19 Apr 2022
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Fiscal risks and sustainability 2023- Debt sustainability
How have rising interest rates and high inflation affected the sustainability of the UK’s public debt, and what are the prospects for reducing it?
OBR economist Ronnie explores.
published: 13 Jul 2023
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Macro Update: Fiscal risks and rate cuts
Welcome to the first webinar of the year with #TreasuryONE and #ETMAnalytics
02:05 Geopolitical risk ramping up
05:05 Most monetary policies remain restrictive
06:02 Futures markets pricing in a slower rate cut cycle
08:57 Fed still tightening
10:13 Tighter USD liquidity may usher in phase of volatility
15:21 US recession probabilities are now rising rapidly
21:17 US government overspending
27:29 Government debts
31:47 ZAR has underperformed many emerging market currencies
34:38 SA inflation
#financialmarkets #interestrates #inflation #recession
published: 08 Feb 2024
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Fiscal risks report July 2021: Climate change: What risks does it pose for government finances?
What risks does climate change pose for government finances?
OBR Economists Rachel and Tom explain some of the risks considered in chapter 3 of our 2021 Fiscal risks report:
https://obr.uk/frr/fiscal-risks-report-july-2021/
____________________________________________
We have disabled comments on this video but there are many other ways to get in touch with us:
For general enquiries email: obr.enquiries@obr.uk
For press enquiries email: obr.press@obr.uk
For feedback on our work and website email: feedback@obr.uk
____________________________________________
Twitter: @obr_uk
Website: www.obr.uk
published: 06 Jul 2021
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Fiscal Risk, Public Sector Balance Sheets and Risk Management: Vitor Gaspar (IMF)
published: 19 Jul 2017
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Fiscal risks and sustainability 2023- Energy
How have higher gas prices affected energy supply and demand, and the costs and risks of meeting the UK’s net zero goals?
OBR senior analyst Alison explains.
published: 13 Jul 2023
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Off the Books: Understanding and Mitigating the Fiscal Risks of Infrastructure
Off the Books: Understanding and Mitigating the Fiscal Risks of Infrastructure
Developing countries face massive infrastructure needs, but public spending on infrastructure is inadequate, and public investment has been declining in recent years. Rising debt levels and tightening fiscal and monetary conditions are putting further pressure on the funds available for infrastructure, heightening the importance of increasing the efficiency of infrastructure spending.
Off the Books: Understanding and Mitigating the Fiscal Risks of Infrastructure shows that however governments deliver infrastructure—through direct public provision, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), or public-private partnerships (PPPs), the risk of fiscal surprises is high in both good times and bad. As a result, infrastructure ...
published: 17 May 2023
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Measuring financial risks associated with climate change: The IMF perspective
In recent years, financial regulators and central banks around the world have recognized that they have to play a role in recognizing and mitigating climate-related risks. Recognizing such risks would help the financial sector to reduce their exposure to assets and industries that are subject to these risks. So how can we assess financial risks associated with climate change? A new approach by the IMF and the World Bank staff provides a bank solvency stress test with coherent climate change, disaster, and macroeconomic scenarios, using the case of the Philippines as an example. Let's listen to the details.
published: 23 Sep 2021
1:16:17
Fiscal risks and sustainability
The UK public finances have been buffeted by a rapid succession of nasty shocks. As the Office for Budget Responsibility noted in July 2022, in the aftermath of...
The UK public finances have been buffeted by a rapid succession of nasty shocks. As the Office for Budget Responsibility noted in July 2022, in the aftermath of the pandemic and in the midst of the energy crisis, ‘it is hard to escape the conclusion that the world is becoming a riskier place’. Since then, global interest rates have soared, pushing the UK government’s debt interest bill to its highest level since the 1980s. On top of that, challenges which were once thought of as ‘long-term’ are increasingly posing fiscal risks in the here and now.
This online event, jointly organised by the Office for Budget Responsibility and Institute for Fiscal Studies, will focus on two particular fiscal risks facing the UK:
Following the publication of the latest Fiscal Risks and Sustainability report in July, Richard Hughes of the OBR will discuss the vulnerability of the UK government’s debt position and the impact of recent interest rate rises.
IFS researchers will present new analysis of how Chancellors respond asymmetrically to ‘good’ and ‘bad’ economic news, and what this means for the public finances and the accuracy of fiscal forecasts.
00:00 - Introduction by Paul Johnson
02:13 - Fiscal risks and sustainability, Richard Hughes
16:13 - How central are official borrowing forecasts, Carl Emmerson
27:10 - Fiscal risks and the city, Bruna Skarica
37:18 - Q&A
https://wn.com/Fiscal_Risks_And_Sustainability
The UK public finances have been buffeted by a rapid succession of nasty shocks. As the Office for Budget Responsibility noted in July 2022, in the aftermath of the pandemic and in the midst of the energy crisis, ‘it is hard to escape the conclusion that the world is becoming a riskier place’. Since then, global interest rates have soared, pushing the UK government’s debt interest bill to its highest level since the 1980s. On top of that, challenges which were once thought of as ‘long-term’ are increasingly posing fiscal risks in the here and now.
This online event, jointly organised by the Office for Budget Responsibility and Institute for Fiscal Studies, will focus on two particular fiscal risks facing the UK:
Following the publication of the latest Fiscal Risks and Sustainability report in July, Richard Hughes of the OBR will discuss the vulnerability of the UK government’s debt position and the impact of recent interest rate rises.
IFS researchers will present new analysis of how Chancellors respond asymmetrically to ‘good’ and ‘bad’ economic news, and what this means for the public finances and the accuracy of fiscal forecasts.
00:00 - Introduction by Paul Johnson
02:13 - Fiscal risks and sustainability, Richard Hughes
16:13 - How central are official borrowing forecasts, Carl Emmerson
27:10 - Fiscal risks and the city, Bruna Skarica
37:18 - Q&A
- published: 29 Sep 2023
- views: 554
1:30
Asian Perspectives on Sovereign Debt and Managing Fiscal Risks
Asian Perspectives on Sovereign Debt and Managing Fiscal Risks
https://www.adb.org/publications/asian-perspectives-on-sovereign-debt-and-managing-fiscal-risks
...
Asian Perspectives on Sovereign Debt and Managing Fiscal Risks
https://www.adb.org/publications/asian-perspectives-on-sovereign-debt-and-managing-fiscal-risks
This ADBI press book highlights the role of fiscal policy as an effective tool in crisis times while also drawing insights on the implications for prudent public debt management and fiscal resilience. With a focus on Asian economies, the book provides guidance to policy makers on reducing debt vulnerabilities and maximizing the capacity of fiscal policy to respond to shocks. The discussions highlight the importance of well-coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, as well as enhancing efforts on tax revenue generation and mobilizing domestic financial resources. The book also describes fiscal framework design that incorporates risk factors, supported by adequate fiscal buffers and credible macroeconomic assumptions in conjunction with a well-anchored fiscal path. Finally, it stresses the role of accountability and transparency in fiscal governance as central to effective public debt management.
https://wn.com/Asian_Perspectives_On_Sovereign_Debt_And_Managing_Fiscal_Risks
Asian Perspectives on Sovereign Debt and Managing Fiscal Risks
https://www.adb.org/publications/asian-perspectives-on-sovereign-debt-and-managing-fiscal-risks
This ADBI press book highlights the role of fiscal policy as an effective tool in crisis times while also drawing insights on the implications for prudent public debt management and fiscal resilience. With a focus on Asian economies, the book provides guidance to policy makers on reducing debt vulnerabilities and maximizing the capacity of fiscal policy to respond to shocks. The discussions highlight the importance of well-coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, as well as enhancing efforts on tax revenue generation and mobilizing domestic financial resources. The book also describes fiscal framework design that incorporates risk factors, supported by adequate fiscal buffers and credible macroeconomic assumptions in conjunction with a well-anchored fiscal path. Finally, it stresses the role of accountability and transparency in fiscal governance as central to effective public debt management.
- published: 02 Nov 2023
- views: 61
31:17
CD Talk: Building Capacity on Managing Fiscal Risks - A New Fiscal Risk Toolkit
We cannot predict what events with adverse impacts on public finances may develop next year, or the year after. But policymakers can structure public finances w...
We cannot predict what events with adverse impacts on public finances may develop next year, or the year after. But policymakers can structure public finances with resilience in mind.
https://wn.com/Cd_Talk_Building_Capacity_On_Managing_Fiscal_Risks_A_New_Fiscal_Risk_Toolkit
We cannot predict what events with adverse impacts on public finances may develop next year, or the year after. But policymakers can structure public finances with resilience in mind.
- published: 19 Apr 2022
- views: 1383
1:20
Fiscal risks and sustainability 2023- Debt sustainability
How have rising interest rates and high inflation affected the sustainability of the UK’s public debt, and what are the prospects for reducing it?
OBR economis...
How have rising interest rates and high inflation affected the sustainability of the UK’s public debt, and what are the prospects for reducing it?
OBR economist Ronnie explores.
https://wn.com/Fiscal_Risks_And_Sustainability_2023_Debt_Sustainability
How have rising interest rates and high inflation affected the sustainability of the UK’s public debt, and what are the prospects for reducing it?
OBR economist Ronnie explores.
- published: 13 Jul 2023
- views: 185
47:53
Macro Update: Fiscal risks and rate cuts
Welcome to the first webinar of the year with #TreasuryONE and #ETMAnalytics
02:05 Geopolitical risk ramping up
05:05 Most monetary policies remain restrictive...
Welcome to the first webinar of the year with #TreasuryONE and #ETMAnalytics
02:05 Geopolitical risk ramping up
05:05 Most monetary policies remain restrictive
06:02 Futures markets pricing in a slower rate cut cycle
08:57 Fed still tightening
10:13 Tighter USD liquidity may usher in phase of volatility
15:21 US recession probabilities are now rising rapidly
21:17 US government overspending
27:29 Government debts
31:47 ZAR has underperformed many emerging market currencies
34:38 SA inflation
#financialmarkets #interestrates #inflation #recession
https://wn.com/Macro_Update_Fiscal_Risks_And_Rate_Cuts
Welcome to the first webinar of the year with #TreasuryONE and #ETMAnalytics
02:05 Geopolitical risk ramping up
05:05 Most monetary policies remain restrictive
06:02 Futures markets pricing in a slower rate cut cycle
08:57 Fed still tightening
10:13 Tighter USD liquidity may usher in phase of volatility
15:21 US recession probabilities are now rising rapidly
21:17 US government overspending
27:29 Government debts
31:47 ZAR has underperformed many emerging market currencies
34:38 SA inflation
#financialmarkets #interestrates #inflation #recession
- published: 08 Feb 2024
- views: 73
2:16
Fiscal risks report July 2021: Climate change: What risks does it pose for government finances?
What risks does climate change pose for government finances?
OBR Economists Rachel and Tom explain some of the risks considered in chapter 3 of our 2021 Fiscal...
What risks does climate change pose for government finances?
OBR Economists Rachel and Tom explain some of the risks considered in chapter 3 of our 2021 Fiscal risks report:
https://obr.uk/frr/fiscal-risks-report-july-2021/
____________________________________________
We have disabled comments on this video but there are many other ways to get in touch with us:
For general enquiries email: obr.enquiries@obr.uk
For press enquiries email: obr.press@obr.uk
For feedback on our work and website email: feedback@obr.uk
____________________________________________
Twitter: @obr_uk
Website: www.obr.uk
https://wn.com/Fiscal_Risks_Report_July_2021_Climate_Change_What_Risks_Does_It_Pose_For_Government_Finances
What risks does climate change pose for government finances?
OBR Economists Rachel and Tom explain some of the risks considered in chapter 3 of our 2021 Fiscal risks report:
https://obr.uk/frr/fiscal-risks-report-july-2021/
____________________________________________
We have disabled comments on this video but there are many other ways to get in touch with us:
For general enquiries email: obr.enquiries@obr.uk
For press enquiries email: obr.press@obr.uk
For feedback on our work and website email: feedback@obr.uk
____________________________________________
Twitter: @obr_uk
Website: www.obr.uk
- published: 06 Jul 2021
- views: 669
1:39
Fiscal risks and sustainability 2023- Energy
How have higher gas prices affected energy supply and demand, and the costs and risks of meeting the UK’s net zero goals?
OBR senior analyst Alison explains.
How have higher gas prices affected energy supply and demand, and the costs and risks of meeting the UK’s net zero goals?
OBR senior analyst Alison explains.
https://wn.com/Fiscal_Risks_And_Sustainability_2023_Energy
How have higher gas prices affected energy supply and demand, and the costs and risks of meeting the UK’s net zero goals?
OBR senior analyst Alison explains.
- published: 13 Jul 2023
- views: 115
1:24
Off the Books: Understanding and Mitigating the Fiscal Risks of Infrastructure
Off the Books: Understanding and Mitigating the Fiscal Risks of Infrastructure
Developing countries face massive infrastructure needs, but public spending on i...
Off the Books: Understanding and Mitigating the Fiscal Risks of Infrastructure
Developing countries face massive infrastructure needs, but public spending on infrastructure is inadequate, and public investment has been declining in recent years. Rising debt levels and tightening fiscal and monetary conditions are putting further pressure on the funds available for infrastructure, heightening the importance of increasing the efficiency of infrastructure spending.
Off the Books: Understanding and Mitigating the Fiscal Risks of Infrastructure shows that however governments deliver infrastructure—through direct public provision, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), or public-private partnerships (PPPs), the risk of fiscal surprises is high in both good times and bad. As a result, infrastructure service delivery often ends up costing significantly more than expected, eroding limited fiscal space for productive spending.
This book makes a unique contribution by quantifying the magnitude and prevalence of fiscal risks from electricity and transport infrastructure and identifying their root causes across a range of low- and middle-income countries. Drawing on important new sources of evidence and compiling many others, the analysis sheds light on how much is at stake in the good governance of infrastructure sectors. It allows policy makers to weigh the magnitudes of different types of risks and examine how they vary across contexts.
Off the Books shows how a deeper understanding of the fiscal risks of infrastructure can help policy makers target reforms to areas where they can be expected to have the greatest impact. It lays out a reform agenda for mitigating the fiscal risks associated with infrastructure based on building government capacity; adopting integrated public investment management and integrated fiscal risk management; improving fiscal and corporate governance of SOEs; and ensuring robust PPP preparation, procurement, and contract management. The book will be of enormous value to policy makers, practitioners, and academics who have an interest in infrastructure and fiscal policy.
Order the book: https://bit.ly/WBPytOffTheBooks
View the PDF: https://bit.ly/WBPytOffTheBooksOKR
FOLLOW US
Newsletter: http://www.worldbank.org/en/newsletter-subscription?wbp=true
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Twitter: http://twitter.com/WBPubs
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Stock images licensed from Pond5.
Music in the video licensed from Pond5.
https://wn.com/Off_The_Books_Understanding_And_Mitigating_The_Fiscal_Risks_Of_Infrastructure
Off the Books: Understanding and Mitigating the Fiscal Risks of Infrastructure
Developing countries face massive infrastructure needs, but public spending on infrastructure is inadequate, and public investment has been declining in recent years. Rising debt levels and tightening fiscal and monetary conditions are putting further pressure on the funds available for infrastructure, heightening the importance of increasing the efficiency of infrastructure spending.
Off the Books: Understanding and Mitigating the Fiscal Risks of Infrastructure shows that however governments deliver infrastructure—through direct public provision, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), or public-private partnerships (PPPs), the risk of fiscal surprises is high in both good times and bad. As a result, infrastructure service delivery often ends up costing significantly more than expected, eroding limited fiscal space for productive spending.
This book makes a unique contribution by quantifying the magnitude and prevalence of fiscal risks from electricity and transport infrastructure and identifying their root causes across a range of low- and middle-income countries. Drawing on important new sources of evidence and compiling many others, the analysis sheds light on how much is at stake in the good governance of infrastructure sectors. It allows policy makers to weigh the magnitudes of different types of risks and examine how they vary across contexts.
Off the Books shows how a deeper understanding of the fiscal risks of infrastructure can help policy makers target reforms to areas where they can be expected to have the greatest impact. It lays out a reform agenda for mitigating the fiscal risks associated with infrastructure based on building government capacity; adopting integrated public investment management and integrated fiscal risk management; improving fiscal and corporate governance of SOEs; and ensuring robust PPP preparation, procurement, and contract management. The book will be of enormous value to policy makers, practitioners, and academics who have an interest in infrastructure and fiscal policy.
Order the book: https://bit.ly/WBPytOffTheBooks
View the PDF: https://bit.ly/WBPytOffTheBooksOKR
FOLLOW US
Newsletter: http://www.worldbank.org/en/newsletter-subscription?wbp=true
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCR2srh8LJpJZEnKS8J8RU4w
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/worldbankpublications
Twitter: http://twitter.com/WBPubs
Website: http://www.worldbank.org/en/research
Stock images licensed from Pond5.
Music in the video licensed from Pond5.
- published: 17 May 2023
- views: 5883
5:34
Measuring financial risks associated with climate change: The IMF perspective
In recent years, financial regulators and central banks around the world have recognized that they have to play a role in recognizing and mitigating climate-rel...
In recent years, financial regulators and central banks around the world have recognized that they have to play a role in recognizing and mitigating climate-related risks. Recognizing such risks would help the financial sector to reduce their exposure to assets and industries that are subject to these risks. So how can we assess financial risks associated with climate change? A new approach by the IMF and the World Bank staff provides a bank solvency stress test with coherent climate change, disaster, and macroeconomic scenarios, using the case of the Philippines as an example. Let's listen to the details.
https://wn.com/Measuring_Financial_Risks_Associated_With_Climate_Change_The_Imf_Perspective
In recent years, financial regulators and central banks around the world have recognized that they have to play a role in recognizing and mitigating climate-related risks. Recognizing such risks would help the financial sector to reduce their exposure to assets and industries that are subject to these risks. So how can we assess financial risks associated with climate change? A new approach by the IMF and the World Bank staff provides a bank solvency stress test with coherent climate change, disaster, and macroeconomic scenarios, using the case of the Philippines as an example. Let's listen to the details.
- published: 23 Sep 2021
- views: 23